Joseph Dixon
We’ve got ourselves a Showdown in Sin City for the Terry’s Chocolate Vegas Showdown, as two blue bloods battle it out in Las Vegas. The Duke Blue Devils face the top ranked Kansas Jayhawks this Tuesday. Can they take down Kansas like they did Arizona? Or will the Jayhawks stay undefeated?
Duke is looking to stay hot following their loss to Kentucky. They took down a very good Arizona team on the road last Friday Night in what many thought would be a look ahead spot. They remained focused, handled business, and now have a date with Kansas at the T-Mobile Arena. Can the young squad continue to find their swagger?
Kansas is 5-0 with 3 wins over bad teams, a tough win that they almost blew against North Carolina at home, and an 8 point victory against Michigan State in the Champions Classic. Will Bill Self have his team ready to go against a red hot Blue Devils basketball team?
Let’s break it down and find our best bets.
#1 Kansas Jayhawks Vs #11 Duke Blue Devils: Terry’s Chocolate Vegas Showdown
Spread
- Duke -2.5 (-115)
- Kansas +2.5 (-105)
Money Line
- Duke -145
- Kansas +125
Total
- Over 148 (-110)
- Under 148 (-110)
Blue Blooded Battle In Sin City
The Blue Devils are certainly testing themselves early in the season. They lost on a neutral site to a Top 10 ranked Kentucky team, beat a Top 20 Arizona team on the road, and now face another Top 5 foe in the Kansas Jayhawks on a neutral site as well. To start December, they host Auburn (5th on Bart Torvik) and play Louisville (55th) on the road. They are doing a great job of testing these freshman early, in hopes that improves their play in March.
The Blue Devils are on the slower side in terms of pace, and they have certainly proven to control the pace of the game against fast teams. Kentucky ranks 8th in possessions per game, Arizona is 11th, and Kansas is 73rd. While they aren’t quite the track team, they certainly like to run, but Duke has the ability to slow them down.
They held Arizona to just 53 field goal attempts, and just 6/23 shooting from behind the arc. In their loss to Kentucky, they allowed the Wildcats to shoot 40% from deep (10/25) and shot over 60 total attempts. The Blue Devils should know they face a high flying offense with multiple scoring options on the floor at all times. Limiting their possessions should be a priority, just like against Arizona.
#1 Kansas Jayhawks Vs #11 Duke Blue Devils Best Bets
Kansas vs Duke Prediction: Kansas Wins, Under 148
Best Bets: Duke/Kansas Under 148 (-110) BetOnline
Full transparency, we are going to wait for some overnight movement and hope this gets bought up.
While these are two Top 10 offenses, we also have two Top 10 defenses who have seen some tough opponents. Neither team turns the ball over very often, they are both Top 45 in eFG% Defense with Duke ranking 8th, and both limit the offensive glass, which Kansas struggles with anyways.
Like I said, the Jayhawks like to run, but they are 310th in 3P Rate despite shooting 34%, but are Top 100 in #P Rate defense, which will come into play considering Duke shoots threes on over 47% of their possessions. Defensively, both teams contest shots and make their opponent miss on the perimeter. Duke and Kansas are both Top 40 in 3P% Defense, holding their opponents to less than 27% from beyond the arc.
The final kicker? These teams are allergic at getting to the free throw line. Both are north of 300 in FT Rate offensively, getting to the line less than a quarter of their possessions. On the flip side, Duke is very good at not fouling, ranking 22nd in FT Rate defense. Even with two very good offenses, the defenses are underrated in my opinion. Duke will slow the ball game down and run their sets, limiting the Jayhawks’ fast break chances.
